上海交大赵大海关于新冠疫情第29次在电视台访谈评论：新冠病毒侵入白宫，美国抗疫复工进退两难
上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，第12次做客上海电视台进行访谈评论，也是自新冠疫情以来第29次在央视/上视的访谈评论。2020年5月11日，赵大海做客东方卫视演播室，在21点的《今晚》直播节目，对新冠肺炎病毒侵入白宫和美国经济重启与抗击疫情进退两难的困境等进行了解读和评论。同期东方卫视的北京演播室连线嘉宾是中国国际问题研究院杨希雨研究员。现将有关赵大海的解读和评论摘录如下。
主持人：首先，想请教一下赵先生，我们都知道白宫作为一个美国的政府首脑办公的这样一个重要的场所，相信除了一般安全之外，卫生安全也不在话下，尤其是在疫情比较肆虐的当下，为什么这个病毒轻而易举的就能进入到白宫的核心圈？
赵大海：病毒能够比较轻易地侵入到白宫，应该有两个方面的解释。第一，白宫虽然它的卫生安全检查在美国比其他地方肯定要高一些，但即便如此，在白宫也发生了相关肺炎的确诊患者，这足以说明美国全国疫情防控是存在很大的漏洞，整个疫情防控的措施是非常松懈的，这也是为什么美国全国新冠肺炎确诊病例超过130万，占目前全球的1/3左右；另外一个方面的解释，就是在华盛顿特区177平方公里的一个非常小的市区里边，它的常住人口是70万，但即便如此，已经有七千左右的新冠肺炎的确诊患者，也就是说1%的人口本身已经是新冠肺炎的确诊患者。因此，白宫的工作人员出现了新冠肺炎的患者就不足为奇。
主持人：接下来想问一下赵先生，一方面复工的前提是疫情要有所缓解，另一方面疫情不缓解复工的话，又造成疫情的情况上升，又会影响经济，这是一个内在的一个矛盾和困局，赵先生怎么看这个问题？会因此导致第二波疫情吗？
赵大海：美国现在确实是处于进退两难的困境。一方面，没有办法真正的开展经济的重启，另外一方面，疫情的防控压力依然很大，就说这个进退两难的困境本身是美国联邦政府在疫情抗击过程当中所导致的，整个联邦政府在疫情防控的政策方面是存在很大的偏颇，比如说联邦政府没有真正的进行非常严格的防控。另外一个方面，就是说如果现在按照本周末的推算的话，可能美国有40个州左右会开展经济的重启；另外，即便有一些这个复工的限制，但应该可能还不能叫第二波的这个暴发。因为目前第一波每天还有2万左右的新增患者。
供稿者：国务学院
日期：5月13日
Dahai Zhao' 29th comments on TV during the Pandemic: COVID-19 Hits the White House. US Faces Mounting Dilemma on Reopening Safely
Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by DFTV for the 12th time (the 29th time by CGTV / DFTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. At 21:00 on May 11, 2020, Zhao commented on that the COVID-19 outbreak has entered the White House and how the administration will react as additional measures are expected on “Tonight”.
Anchor: Why is it easy for the virus to make its way into the inner circle of the White House at the time when the epidemic is raging?
Zhao: There should be two explanations for the coronavirus easily spreading in the White House. First, although the health security inspection in the White House was more stringent than that in other places in the United States, confirmed cases were found in the White House. This shows that there were big loopholes in the prevention and control of the epidemic in the United States, and the measures for the prevention and control of the epidemic were still lax. That’s why there are now more than 1.3 million confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States, with a third of the world's total cases. Another explanation is that in an area of 177 square kilometers of Washington, d.c., which has a resident population of 700,000. There were already about 7,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, which means 1% of the population has been diagnosed with COVID-19 themself. So it's no surprise that White House staff members were seeing cases of COVID-19.
Anchor: On the one hand, the premise of resuming work is that the epidemic should be alleviated. On the other hand, if the epidemic is not alleviated, the situation of the epidemic will rise and the economy will be affected. This is an inherent contradiction and dilemma. Will this lead to a second wave of outbreaks?
Zhao: The United States is in a real dilemma. On the one hand, there is no way to fully restart the economy. On the other hand, the epidemic prevention and control pressure is still very high. The dilemma itself is the consequence of the federal government's response to the outbreak. The federal government as a whole is very biased in its epidemic prevention and control policies, for example, the federal government does not really carry out very strict prevention and control from the beginning to now. By the end of this week, about 40 states could be in the process of restarting their economies. Even if there were some restrictions on the resumption of work, it cannot be called the second wave of this outbreak, since the first wave was still currently adding about 20,000 new patients a day.
Contributor: SIPA, SJTU
Data: May 13