上海交大赵大海关于新冠疫情第31次在电视台访谈评论：美国经济重启将引起新冠疫情进一步暴发是常识判断

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，第13次在上海电视台进行访谈评论，也是自新冠疫情以来第31次在央视/上视的访谈评论。2020年5月13日，赵大海接受东方卫视的连线采访，在21点的《今晚》直播节目，对美国传染病学家福奇在参议院对新冠疫情的相关警告进行了解读和评论。同期东方卫视的演播室嘉宾是复旦大学国际问题研究院沈丁立教授。现将有关赵大海的解读和评论摘录如下。

主持人：如何理解福奇提出的这些警告？

赵大海：美国在过去半个月的时间内，每日新增病例都在2-3万左右，昨天最新的数据是22000名新增病例；然而在这个背景之下，美国四十多个州重启经济，因此，认为经济重启会导致美国新冠肺炎进一步暴发的论断，只属于公共卫生、重大突发公共卫生事件的常识判断。我相信任何一名传染病学家都可以很容易得出这样的判断。除此之外，福奇对于所目前披露的死亡人数比实际死亡人数要低，这个也符合历次传染病大流行的基本判断。总之一句话，福奇的这些警告，并没有新意，只是公共卫生的常识判断，我当然也是完全赞同。

供稿者：国务学院

日期：5月15日

Dahai Zhao' 31th comments on TV during the Pandemic: Reopening US Economy Causes a Spike in COVID-19 Cases Should be Common Sense

Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by ShanghaiTV for the 13th time (the 31th time by CGTV / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. At 21:00 on May 13, 2020, Zhao commented on Anthony Fauci delivered the somber warning to the Senate on “Tonight”.

Anchor: How to explain warnings from Fauci?

Zhao: The number of new cases in the United States has been about 20,000 to 30,000 a day for the past half month. The latest figures of yesterday were 22,000 new cases. Against this background, more than forty states in the United States have restarted their economies. Therefore, the conclusion that the economic restarting will lead to further outbreaks of COVID-19 in the United States is the judgment with common sense by public health and major public health emergencies. I believe that any epidemiologist can easily draw such a judgment. In addition, Fauci’s claim that the reported death toll is lower than it actually was is consistent with the basic assumption of pandemics. In a word, Fauci's warnings are nothing new, just common sense of public health judgments, and I certainly agree with them.

Contributor: SIPA, SJTU

Data: May 15