上海交大赵大海关于新冠疫情第36次在电视台访谈评论：北京新发地市场新冠疫情将很快得到控制
上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，对于新冠肺炎疫情暴发与防控第21次在中央电视台进行直播评论，也是第36次在央视、上视进行访谈评论。在2020年6月14日，赵大海在中央电视台英语频道CGTN《中国24小时》节目，就北京新发地农贸市场新冠肺炎疫情及其走向进行了解读和评论。现将访谈内容翻译并摘录如下。
主持人：北京的新增新冠肺炎病例都与北京新发地农贸批发市场有关。武汉疫情在早期也是从华南农贸批发市场开始的。请问这是巧合吗？还是农贸批发市场本身就是容易成为疫情暴发的地方？
赵大海：首先，我认为这是巧合。然而，农贸批发市场确实容易成为疫情暴发的地方，这主要是有以下两个可能的原因。第一种可能性是在农贸批发市场，受新冠肺炎病毒感染的海鲜或肉类是本次暴发的源头。在这个批发市场，很多海鲜和肉类都是从国外进口的。考虑到国外每天有十多万例新增确诊病例，被病毒感染的冷冻海鲜和肉类可以在冷冻的条件下存活很长时间。当这些产品运到北京批发市场时，市场的工作人员在处理这些产品时，可能会受到冷冻海鲜或肉类里的新冠病毒感染。如果工作人员受到感染，就很容易在人群密集的农贸批发市场造成人际传播。第二种可能性就是本次疫情只是简单的人际传播暴发。考虑到新发地批发市场每天都有大量的人流量，而市场里的人来自天南海北和流动性很大。只要有一例未能觉察的新冠肺炎无症状感染者或轻症状感染者就可能导致在人群密集的农贸批发市场的暴发。疫情的真正原因还需要进一步确认。据我所知，暴发的原因应该是上述两个之一。
主持人：随着新冠肺炎新发病例的急增，您如何看待这一趋势？是否有第二波新冠肺炎疫情暴发的可能？
赵大海：我的答案很明确，北京新发地农贸市场的本次疫情将很快得到控制。在北京和全国发生第二波新冠肺炎疫情暴发的可能性是不存在的。最重要的原因是北京的疫情防控机制比半年前已有了巨大的提升。当地政府和当地疾控中心在很短的时间就已确认了新发地农贸市场的新冠肺炎病例。当地政府很快就找到了确诊病例的所有密切接触者、所有去过新发地市场的人和工作人员。所有密切接触者都已进行了核酸检测。因此，无论新发地农贸市场的本次疫情暴发的原因是什么，都不可能导致第二波疫情，而且一定会在很短的时间内得到控制。此外，小规模的群集性新冠肺炎感染或暴发今后可能会继续在我国某些地区出现。毕竟，国外新冠肺炎疫情依然非常严重，我国也很难在短时间内将所有无症状的新冠肺炎感染者全部发现。因此，所有地方政府近期都不应当完全放松疫情防控的警惕。
供稿者：国务学院
日期：2020年6月15日
Dahai Zhao' 36th comments on TV during the Pandemic: The COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing's Xinfadi market will soon be brought under control
Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by CGTN for the 21th time (the 36th time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On June 14, 2020, Zhao commented on the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing's Xinfadi market will soon be brought under control on “China 24”.
Anchor: Beijing's new cases of COVID-19 are all linked to the city's Xinfadi wholesale market. It is the same to Huanan Market in Wuhan. Is it a coincidence? or the food market is prone to become a place of the outbreak?
Zhao: First, I think it is a coincidence. However, food market is really prone to become a place of the outbreak. There are two possible reasons. The first possibility is the seafood or meat contaminated with the COVID-19 virus at the wholesale market is the source. Many seafood and meat are imported from abroad. Considering that there are more than one hundred thousand daily new confirmed cases abroad, the frozen seafood and meat which is contaminated with the virus and the virus can survive for a long time. When these products are shipped to the wholesale market in Beijing, the staff at the market may be infected via droplets of the frozen seafood or meat when they operate on the products. If the staff is infected, it is very easy to cause human to human transmission at the densely populated market. The second possibility is that it is a simple human to human transmission outbreak. Considering the large stream of people at Xinfadi wholesale market everyday, people at the market are from all areas, and most people at the market are on the move everyday. If one asymptomatic or light-symptom case of COVID-19 who was not detected may lead to the outbreak at the populated market. Which reason is the real cause of the outbreak needs to be further confirmed. As far as I know, the cause of the outbreak must be one of the two aforementioned reasons.
Anchor: As a new spike in coronavirus cases has emerged, how do you see the trend will go? Could there be a second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak?
Zhao: My answer is very clear. the outbreak will be under control soon. Further, it is impossible to be a second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing and in the whole country. The most important reason is that the pandemic control mechanism in Beijing is much better than half a year ago. It takes a very short time for the local government and the local CDC to confirm the COVID-19 patients at Xinfadi market. In addition, it is very fast for the local government to catch all close contacts of the confirmed cases and all visitors and workers at the Xinfadi market. Further, all close contacts are detected by the nueclic acid tests. Therefore, whatever the cause of the outbreak at Xinfadi market, it is impossible to lead to a second wave of the outbreak, and it will be under control in a very short time. In addition, the small-scale cluster infections or outbreak may continue to appear in some areas of China in the future. After all, the situation of COVID-19 abroad is still serious and it is not easy to make all asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 expose in a short time in China. Therefore, all local governments can not relax the guard fully in the near future.
Contributor: SIPA, SJTU
Data: June 15