上海交大赵大海关于新冠疫情第42次在电视台访谈评论：美国新冠疫情形势愈发严峻

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，对于新冠肺炎疫情暴发与防控第16次做客上海电视台进行评论，也是第42次在央视、上视进行访谈评论。在2020年6月26日，赵大海做客东方卫视演播厅的《今晚》节目，就美国新冠疫情最新进展进行了直播解读和评论。现将访谈内容摘录如下。

主持人：疫情的话题我们参与讨论的是上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心的执行主任赵大海。有一个数字请教您，美国CDC主任雷德菲尔德昨天说，美国实际感染的人数可能已经超过了2000万，这是一个什么样的概念？说明什么问题？

赵大海：美国新冠肺炎现在官方统计的数据已经接近了250万人。但是对于任何国家而言，新冠肺炎的统计数据一定是低于实际数据的。那实际数据如何来获得呢？一般有两个方面，第一个办法就是说采取类似于我们武汉全民核酸检测的办法；第二种办法是采取全人群的随机抽样检测。美国CDC在近日对于已经获取的血液进行了随机抽样，得出的已感染的新冠肺炎的比例是在5-8%左右。结合美国全民3.3亿人口的数字，美国CDC主任预测现在实际感染的人数可能已经超过了2000万人。因此，这也充分说明美国新冠肺炎的疫情，比我们预期的还要严重。

主持人：即使新冠肺炎如此之严重，但是美国还是非常任性的重启了经济，《财富杂志》有评论说美国大范围的重启经济，很多美国人患上了病毒失忆症，失去了警惕，福奇也说现在仍然是第一波的疫情，如果趋势不变，那么在您看来专业的角度来说，这个时候美国人是不是应该重新的关闭经济？

赵大海：如果完全从公共卫生或者从重大传染病的防控角度讲，美国白宫确实是要关闭经济。但是从过去的三个多月的时间来看，其实美国每一天的新增新冠肺炎病例都在2万左右，或者是超过2万；也就是说在过去的三个多月，美国并没有在任何的一天符合重启经济的条件。然而美国依然绝大部分州都重启了经济。因此，美国白宫关闭经济只是从公共卫生的角度来考量；但是在实践当中，美国包括特朗普在内的很多政客都极力反对关闭经济的措施，他们主要是从政治上进行的考量。因此，在实践当中，美国很难再继续关闭经济。

供稿者：国务学院

日期：2020年6月28日

Dahai Zhao' 42th comments on TV during the Pandemic: COVID-19 in United States is getting serious

Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by ShanghaiTV for the 16th time (the 42th time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On June 26, 2020, Zhao commented on the latest development of COVID-19 in US on “Tonight”.

Anchor: CDC director Redfield said yesterday that the actual number of infected people in United States may have exceeded 20 million. What is the point?

Zhao: Covid-19 is now officially approaching 2.5 million people in the United States. But for any country, COVID-19 statistics must be lower than they actually are. So how do you get the actual data? Generally speaking, there are two aspects. The first method is to adopt the nucleic acid testing method similar to that adopted by the whole people in Wuhan. The second option is to use a population-wide random sampling test. Random sampling of blood collected by the US CDC in recent days has put the proportion of infected COVID-19 at around 5-8%. Combined with a national population of 330 million, the CDC director estimates that the actual number of people infected may now be more than 20 million. So this is a strong indication that the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States is worse than we expected.

Anchor: Even COVID-19 so serious, the American is very wayward to restart the economy, fortune magazine has commented that the United States a wide range of resumption of economy, many Americans suffer from amnesia, lose vigilance, Fauci said now is still the first wave of the outbreak, if trends continue, so in your opinion, professional point of view, Americans should be closed at this time the economy?

Zhao: The White House does want to shut down the economy, if only in terms of public health or the prevention and control of major infectious diseases. But for the past three months or more, the number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States has been about 20,000, or more than 20,000, every day. In other words, not a single day in the past three months has America been eligible to restart its economy. Yet most American states are still restarting their economies. So the White House closed the economy only for public health reasons. But in practice, many politicians in the United States, including Mr. Trump, are strongly opposed to measures to shut down the economy, mostly for political reasons. In practice, therefore, it is hard for the US to keep shutting down its economy.

Contributor: SIPA, SJTU

Data: June 28