上海交大赵大海关于新冠疫情第45次在电视台访谈评论：美国新冠疫情陷入恶性循环

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，对于新冠肺炎疫情暴发与防控第18次在上海电视台进行评论，也是第45次在央视、上视进行访谈评论。在2020年7月17日，赵大海在东方卫视的《今晚》节目，就美国新冠肺炎疫情一天的新增病例突破7万等进行了直播评论。现将访谈内容摘录如下。

主持人：进入全球眼，部分国家疫情趋缓之际，美国状况仍不见好转。16日，美国新增病例数首次超过7.7万例，再次突破该国单日确诊增幅，死亡人数也持续飙升，达到6月以来最高纪录。有关这一话题，我们将对话上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海。福奇此前说，如果不团结，阻止病毒传播，美国的新增病例很快会突破10万一天，在您看来，美国疫情为何陷入到恶性循环？

赵大海：美国的疫情现在确实是进入了恶性循环，原因也是比较清晰的。由于距离美国总统大选还有三个多月的时间，考虑到经济发展是总统大选的重要指标，特朗普政府急于重启经济。而且是在美国的新冠肺炎疫情还没有得到控制的前提下，急于重启经济。因此，出现新冠肺炎疫情的不断恶化是在预料之中的。据有关统计数据显示，美国6月份的失业率比上个月下降了2.2%。失业率的下降让特朗普政府欢呼雀跃。然而，失业率的下降，即就业人数的增多，在新冠肺炎疫情还没有得到控制的前提下，结果就必然是感染人数的增加、疫情的进一步恶化。

只有在疫情得到控制的前提下，经济的安全重启才是打破恶性循环链条的唯一出路。只有确保了疫情控制，才能重启经济。因此，美国疫情进入恶性循环的真正原因在于特朗普政府将新冠肺炎疫情原本是单纯的公共卫生问题，变成了为了总统大选考量的疫情政治问题。一切为了总统大选，不顾疫情的蔓延重启经济，才导致了恶性循环。

供稿者：国务学院

日期：2020年7月19日

Dahai Zhao' 45th comments on TV during the Pandemic: US Trapped in A Vicious Circle of COVID-19

Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by DFTV for the 18th time (the 45th time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On July 19, 2020, Zhao commented on the number of new cases in US topped 70,000 in a single day on “Tonight” of DFTV.

Anchor: While the epidemic in some countries has slowed down, the situation in the United States has not improved. On the 16th, the number of new cases in the United States exceeded 77,000 for the first time, breaking the country’s single-day increase in confirmed cases again, and the death toll continued to soar, reaching the highest record since June. On this topic, we will talk to Zhao Dahai, executive director of the Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Center for Health Policy. Fauci previously said that if we do not unite to prevent the spread of the virus, the number of new cases in the United States will soon exceed 100,000 a day. In your opinion, why does the US epidemic fall into a vicious circle?

Zhao: The epidemic in the United States has indeed entered a vicious circle, and the reasons are relatively clear. Since the US presidential election is more than three months away, considering that economic development is an important indicator of the presidential election, the Trump Administration is eager to restart the economy. Moreover, under the premise that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has not been brought under control, it is eager to restart the economy. Therefore, the continuous deterioration of COVID-19  is expected. According to relevant statistics, the unemployment rate in the US in June dropped by 2.2% from the previous month. The fall in the unemployment rate has cheered the Trump Administration. However, the decline in the unemployment rate, that is, the increase in the number of employed people, under the premise that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has not been controlled, the result will inevitably be an increase in the number of infections and a further deterioration of the epidemic.

Only on the premise that the epidemic is under control, the safe restart of the economy is the only way to break the vicious circle chain. Only when epidemic control is ensured can the economy be restarted. Therefore, the real reason why the US epidemic has entered a vicious circle is that the Trump Administration has turned COVID-19 epidemic from a pure public health issue into a political issue for the presidential election. All for the presidential election, and restarting the economy despite the spread of the epidemic, led to a vicious circle.

Contributor: SIPA, SJTU

Data: July 19