上海交大赵大海关于新冠疫情第46次在电视台访谈评论：新疆大连疫情反弹会很快得到控制

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，对于新冠肺炎疫情暴发与防控第28次在中央电视台英语频道进行直播评论，也是第46次在央视、上视进行访谈评论。在2020年7月29日，赵大海在央视英语频道的《环球瞭望》节目，就新疆大连的疫情反弹以及全球疫情防控的未来走向等进行了直播评论。现将访谈内容翻译并摘录如下。

主持人：在连续5个月几乎没有出现新冠肺炎感染病例之后，新疆的新增病例数突然上升。您认为背后的原因是什么？

赵大海：我认为有两个可能的原因。首先，新疆与俄罗斯、印度等8个国家接壤，而这些国家的新冠肺炎疫情现在非常严重，新疆与接壤的各国之间的人员来往又是难以避免的。其次，宗教聚集活动可能是另一个原因。在新疆，宗教聚集活动非常普遍。考虑到可能存在某些无症状感染者，聚集活动会增大疫情暴发的可能性。然而，我相信新疆的疫情很快就会得到控制，因为新疆自治区政府和各级地方政府已全力以赴来共同防控本次新冠疫情暴发。

主持人：大连最近的疫情似乎是从海鲜市场传播开的。几个月前，北京的疫情也从新发地市场的海鲜区蔓延开来。为什么海鲜市场成为疫情暴发的热点？

赵大海：据我所知，虽然大连的疫情是从一家海鲜公司蔓延开来，但与北京新发地市场和武汉华南海鲜市场还是有一定的区别。然而，海鲜公司或海鲜市场确实已成为疫情暴发的热点。我认为原因如下：目前的新冠病毒应该是来自进口的海鲜产品。考虑到国外每天有20多万新增确诊病例，冷冻海鲜产品在加工、包装环节可能会受到病毒的污染，而病毒在冰冻状态下可以长期存活。因此，当这些产品进口到中国之后。海鲜公司或市场的工作人员在操作冷冻海鲜时，可能会通过物理接触被病毒污染的海鲜产品而感染新冠肺炎病毒。一旦海鲜公司或市场的员工被感染，就很容易在人群密集的海鲜公司或市场造成疫情的暴发。

主持人：最近我们注意到了北京、大连、新疆新的聚集性暴发。虽然包括中国在内的许多国家某种程度上控制了新冠疫情，又不断出现了新的聚集性感染，为什么会出现这样的局面？

赵大海：我认为有两个原因。首先，很多国家新冠疫情越来越严重。与此同时，进出口货物等国际贸易一直维持着。而跨国贸易就很容易将新冠病毒从一个国家带到另一个国家。因此，人类必须联合起来共同让新冠病毒从地球上消失。只有这样，人类才能完全控制住新冠疫情。其次，无症状感染者是另一个重要原因。有些无症状病例通过一次或两次核酸测试无法确认，当新冠肺炎无症状感染者参加聚集活动或有一些密切接触者时，它就会易导致聚集性感染和传播。相关政府部门应采取必要措施来发现这些无症状感染者。

主持人：下一个话题是关于疫苗，目前已经有很多关于疫苗研发进展的新闻。但您认为如果没有疫苗，是不是就无法赢得新冠肺炎疫情大流行这场战争？

赵大海：我的答案是否定的。在赢得新冠肺炎疫情大流行这场战争方面，疫苗确实可以发挥重要作用。然而，据我所知，未来的新冠疫苗并不是灵丹妙药。即使人们注射了新冠疫苗，也会存在大量的人无法产生相应的抗体。因此，我认为，全球都必须采取严格措施来全力防控新冠疫情的暴发和大流行。唯有如此，人类才能最终赢得抗击新冠疫情这场战争。

供稿者：国务学院

日期：2020年7月30日

Dahai Zhao' 46th comments on TV during the Pandemic: The Rebound in Dalian and Xinjiang Will Soon Be Under Control

Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by CGTN for the 28th time (the 46th time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On July 29, 2020, Zhao commented on the the rebound of the epidemic in Dalian, Xinjiang province and the future of global epidemic prevention and control on “Global Watch” of CGTN.

Anchor: After a streak of 5 months of almost no infections, cases are suddenly rising in Xinjiang. What went wrong there?

Zhao: I think there are two possible reasons. First, Xinjiang is bordered by 8 countries including Russia, India where the pandemic of COVID-19 in these countries is very serious. It is inevitable for the travelling between Xinjiang and these neighbor countries. Second, Religious gathering may be another reason. In Xinjiang, the religious gathering is very popular. Considering certain asymptomatic cases may exist, the gathering may improve the probability of the infections and pandemic. However, I believe the pandemic in Xinjiang will be controlled soon, due to the fact the provincial and local governments have tried their best to control the outbreak.

Anchor: The latest outbreak in Dalian appeared to have been spread from a seafood market. Few months back, outbreak in Beijing too spread from the seafood section of Xinfadi Market. Why seafood markets are becoming the hotspots?

Zhao: As far as I know, the outbreak in Dalian has been spread from a seafood company where is a little difference with the aforementioned Beijing Xinfadi Food Market and the Wuhan Huanan Seafood Market.  However, seafood companies or seafood markets are really becoming the hotspots of the outbreak. I believe the reason as followed, The source of the current virus is from the imported seafood. Considering that there are more than two hundred thousand daily new confirmed cases abroad, the frozen seafood which may be contaminated with the virus and the virus can survive for a long time during the iced condition. When these products are shipped in China, the staff at the seafood company or market may be infected via physical touch of the frozen seafood when they operate on the products. If the staff is infected, it is very easy to cause human to human transmission at the densely populated company or market. 

Anchor: Many countries including China despite controlling the pandemic, have witnessed more cluster infections. Why is that the case?

Zhao: I think there are two reasons. First, the pandemic in many countries is more and more serious. At the same time, the international trade such as the imported or exported goods has been kept. Through the international trade, it is very easy to bring the COVID-19 from one country to another one. Therefore, human beings have to join together to make the COVID-19 virus disappear from the earth. Only through this, human beings can control the pandemic completely. Second, the asymptomatic case is another important reason. Some asymptomatic cases can not be confirmed through one or two nuclic acid tests. When the asymptomatic case attends gatherings or has some close contacts, it leads to cluster infections. The related governments may take measures to trace the asymptomatic case.

Anchor: Is wining the COVID-19 war impossible without a vaccine?

Zhao: My answer is no. I acknowledge that vaccine will play an important role in winning the pandemic. However, as far as I know, the potential vaccine is not a panacea. Even though people are injected the vaccine, a huge number of people may not produce the antibody. Therefore, what I believe is that all countries must try their best to control the pandemic through stringent measures. Only through this, human beings can win the COVID-19 war.

Contributor: SIPA, SJTU

Data: July 30