上海交大赵大海关于新冠疫情第47次在电视台访谈评论：新冠疫苗上市仍需等待

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，对于新冠肺炎疫情暴发与防控第29次在中央电视台英语频道进行直播评论，也是第47次在央视、上视进行访谈评论。在2020年8月17日，赵大海在央视英语频道的《中国24小时》节目，就全国疫情防控形势以及疫苗研发和上市进行了直播评论。现将访谈内容翻译并摘录如下。

主持人：在本周日，中国大陆对于本土的新冠肺炎实现了零报告。这是否意味着新冠疫情在中国大陆得到了完全控制？我们仍然面临哪些挑战？

赵大海：虽然我们在抗击新冠肺炎疫情方面取得了巨大成功，但这并不意味着新冠肺炎疫情已完全得到控制。事实上，中国大陆在某一天没有新发本土新冠肺炎病例报告，这已不是第一次。我认为至少还要面临两方面的挑战。首先，病毒可能会通过进口商品从国外输入到国内。由于新冠肺炎全球大流行尚未得到控制；在一些国家，新冠肺炎疫情甚至越来越严重，进口商品，特别是进口的海鲜或肉类等冷冻食品，可能会把病毒从国外带到中国。其次，普通居民中仍存在一定的无症状感染者。由于无症状感染者很难被发现，而且通过对全民实施核酸检测的办法又很难行得通，这些无症状感染者必然是另一个挑战。因此，虽然我们在抗击新冠疫情方面取得了巨大成就，但我们仍然不能放松警惕，未来在中国大陆发生新冠肺炎疫情暴发的可能依然存在。

主持人：中国已经批准了首项新冠肺炎疫苗的专利。新冠肺炎疫苗的三期临床试验也正在进行中。每个人都在等待疫苗，但我们离新冠疫苗的量产还有多远？

赵大海：我认为新冠疫苗的量产应该会在今年年底或明年年初。从新冠肺炎疫苗研发的当前阶段到量产，还需要在人群当中进行科学试验。该试验最重要的部分是对疫苗的安全性和有效性进行检测。与其他疫苗相比，我相信新冠肺炎疫苗的试验过程会短得多，主要是因为当前很多国家每天都有大量新的确诊病例。目前，新冠肺炎的新发病率很高，为该试验的进行提供了重要的机遇。如果目前新冠肺炎大流行已结束，在人群当中要完成该试验就会慢得多。当在人群的科学试验完成后，如果试验结果能达到预期，那么疫苗就将很快上市。

供稿者：国务学院

日期：2020年8月18日

Dahai Zhao' 47th comments on TV during the Pandemic: We Have to Wait for the Vaccines Manufacturing to Happen

Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by CGTN for the 29th time (the 47th time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 17, 2020, Zhao commented on the situation of containment in China and the marketing of vaccines on “China 24” of CGTN.

Anchor: The Chinese mainland reported zero local transmissions on Sunday. Does this mean the epidemic has been totally brought under control? What challenges are we still facing?

Zhao: Although we have achieved great successes on the combating COVID-19, it does not mean the pandemic has been totally brought under control. Actually, it is not the first time that Chinese mainland reported zero local transmissions in one day. At least two challenges are still facing. First, the imported goods may bring the virus from abroad. Due to the fact that the pandemic in the world has not been under control, in some countries, the pandemic is worse and worse, the imported goods, particularly the frozen food such as frozen seafood or meat, may bring the virus to China. Second, asymptomatic cases have still been among common residents. Because it is not easy to find the asymptomatic cases, and it is not easy to screen for all population through the nucleic acid test, asymptomatic cases must be another challenge. Therefore, although we have got great achievements, we can not relax the vigilance for the potential future pandemic of COVID-19. 

Anchor: China has approved its first COVID-19 vaccine patent. And its third clinical trial is underway. Everybody is waiting, but how far away are we from its production? 

Zhao: I think the vaccine production will be at about the late of the year or the very early of next year. The process from the current stage to its production still needs the scientific experiment among people. The most important part of the experiment is the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. Compared with other vaccines, I believe the process of the experiment for the vaccine of COVID-19 will be much shorter, mostly because there are a huge number of new confirmed cases in many countries. Right now, that the infection rate of covid-19 is high has offered a chance to carry out the scientific experiment. If the pandemic were over, it would have been much slower to finish the experiment among people. When the scientific experiment among people have been finished, and if the outcome can meet the expectations, the vaccine will be in productions soon. 

Contributor: SIPA, SJTU

Data: August 18