上海交大赵大海做客东方卫视演播室:在英国的新冠病毒新毒株疫情值得各国高度重视

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海,自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,对于新冠疫情暴发、防控以及卫生政策第26次接受上海电视台专访,也是第72次接受央视、上视专访。2020年12月21日,赵大海做客东方卫视演播室的《今晚》节目,就英国新冠病毒新毒株疫情及其对英国政治经济所造成的影响等话题进行了直播访谈。现将访谈内容摘录如下。

主持人:相关的话题我们在上海的演播室请到上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海先生。接下来我问一下赵先生,在您看来英国这个时候采取这样的一个行动,是不是太晚了?陷入到了相对被动的局面。

赵大海:确实现在是反应太晚了。陷入目前非常被动的局面,主要是两个方面的原因,第一个就是英国政府自始至终、或多或少都受到“人群免疫疗法”这个指导思想的影响;另外一个方面,英国政府一直想通过比较小的政治、经济代价是来进行疫情防控。举一个例子,英国到目前为止都没有采取像样的高科技的手段来追踪密切接触者,也就是说,英国大部分确诊病例的密切接触者还属于失控的状态,这也是导致英国现在新冠疫情防控越来越严重的主要原因之一。


主持人:那么除了英国,世卫组织12月20号的这个消息,称已在丹麦、荷兰、澳大利亚发现相关的这样一个病例,那么结合目前的欧洲的各个国家的防疫的政策,您认为这个变异的病毒还会进一步蔓延吗?我们刚刚得到的消息,香港特区政府已经禁止英国的航班入境,所以这也是控制它蔓延的一种办法,你怎么看,会不会蔓延?

赵大海:这个新冠病毒的新的毒株一定会蔓延到更多的国家或地区。最主要的依据就是,虽然现在叫新毒株,但它并不是现在才发现的,其实在今年的九月就已经发现了。在最近一个月左右的时间之内,英国该新毒株已经在比较大范围内流行了。与此同时,在最近的一段时间,英国跟其他国家,特别是欧洲的一些国家,一直保持比较频繁的人员流动。因此,非常简单地就可以推测出这个新毒株已经在很多国家蔓延。

主持人:但是从您的专业的角度来讲,其实早就知道了,而且对它的蔓延,我相信英国的这个各种各样的大学的数学模型,一定会模拟出来,简单的告诉我为什么英国迟迟到现在为止才采取措施?

赵大海:还是回到刚才我讲的这个话题,就是说,英国政府一直在受到“人群免疫疗法”的影响,英国政府一直不愿意采取非常严格的防控措施。比如说,如果在非常早的时间之内告诉欧洲其他国家或者世界其他国家,我们已经有了比较严重的新毒株了,那这个信息一出来之后,就会对英国本国的政治和经济产生比较大的负面影响,他们主要是从这个角度来考虑的。


主持人:您看屋漏偏逢连夜雨,12月31号,脱欧的过渡期将结束,尽管他们要延长谈判,新的海关要生效,诸如此类,而且圣诞节又是人员密集流动的时期。现在采取各种各样的封锁的措施,简单的一句话,从您的角度来讲,会对政治经济产生怎样的影响?

赵大海:现在非常肯定的可以说,英国现在一定是祸不单行,它对政治、经济负面的影响,应该一定是非常巨大的。但对于英国而言,现在能做的应该是置之死地而后生,现在就不要再去追逐政治、经济和疫情防控的平衡点,而应该是全力来防控疫情。如果疫情真的防控住了,那其他国家或地区的封锁,自然而然也就会给它放开了,它的政治和经济也就慢慢的恢复了。这就要看英国政府是不是有决心抛弃原先错误的防控指导思想,就看英国有没有这个决心了。

供稿者:国务学院

日期:2020年12月22日


Dahai ZHAO’s Exclusive Interview with ShanghaiTV: The New Strain of COVID-19 Discovered in Britain Deserves Attention from All Countries

Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at the School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by ShanghaiTV for the 26nd time (the 72nd time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On December 21, 2020, Zhao commented on the new strain of COVID-19 discovered in Britain and its influence on British political economy on “Tonight” of ShanghaiTV.

Anchor: On a related topic, from our studio in Shanghai, we have Mr. Zhao Dahai, Executive Director of the Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Center for Health Policy. Next, I would like to ask Mr. Zhao, in your opinion, is it too late for Britain to take such a move at this time? We got into a relatively passive situation.

ZHAO: Indeed, it is too late now. There are two main reasons for the current very passive situation. The first is that the British government has been more or less influenced by the guiding ideology of "population immunotherapy" throughout the whole process. On the other hand, the British government has been trying to prevent and control the epidemic at a relatively small political and economic cost. To take one example, the UK has so far failed to adopt a decent, high-tech approach to tracking down close contacts, which means that most of the close contacts of confirmed cases in the UK are still out of control, which is one of the main reasons for the increasing severity of COVID-19 in the UK.

Anchor: So in addition to the United Kingdom, WHO on December 20, said that has been found in Denmark, the Netherlands, Australia such a case, then combined with the current European countries of the epidemic prevention policy, do you think this mutated virus will spread further? We've just been told that the Hong Kong SAR government has banned flights from the UK, so that's one way to control the spread, what do you think, will it spread?

ZHAO:  The new strain of COVID-19 is sure to spread to more countries and territories. The main evidence is that although it's now called a new strain, it wasn't discovered just now, in fact it was discovered in September of this year. Within the last month or so, the new strain has become widespread in the UK. At the same time, in recent times, the United Kingdom and other countries, especially some countries in Europe, have maintained a relatively high flow of people. So it is very simple to speculate that this new strain has spread in many countries.

Anchor: However, from the perspective of your major, you have known about it for a long time, and I believe that the mathematical model of the various universities in the UK will surely be simulated. Tell me simply why the UK has taken such a long time to take measures.

ZHAO: To go back to what I was saying, that the British government has been affected by "population immunotherapy", and the British government has been reluctant to adopt very strict control measures. For example, if you tell the rest of Europe or the rest of the world, very early on, that we have a new strain, then once that information comes out, it will have a big negative impact on the politics and economics of the UK itself, and they think about it mainly from that point of view.

Anchor: You see, it's a rainy day, December 31st, the transition period to leave the European Union ends, although they have to extend the negotiations, the new customs comes into effect, and so on, and Christmas is a time of intense movement. Now all kinds of blockade measures, in a word, from your point of view, what will be the impact on the political economy?

ZHAO: It is now quite certain that the UK is suffering from a double whammy. Its negative political and economic impact must be enormous. However, for the UK, what we can do now is to fight for death and then survive. Now, we should stop chasing the balance between politics, economy and epidemic prevention and control, instead, we should try our best to prevent and control the epidemic. If the epidemic is really contained, the blockade of other countries or regions will be lifted naturally, and its politics and economy will gradually recover. This depends on whether the UK government has the determination to abandon the previous misguided guidelines on prevention and control.

Contributor: SIPA, SJTU

Data: December 22, 2020


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