上海交大赵大海接受央视专访：中国不可能再次暴发新冠大流行
上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来，对于新冠疫情暴发、防控以及卫生政策第48次接受中央电视台专访，也是第74次接受央视、上视专访。2020年12月26日，赵大海在中央电视台英语频道的《中国24小时》节目，就北京新增本土确诊新冠病例而所引发的有关中国新冠疫苗接种效果何时显现和中国是否有能力防控住新冠大流行等话题进行了直播访谈。现将访谈内容翻译并摘录如下。
主持人：中国已开始为高危人群接种疫苗。疫苗接种对遏制新冠的新一轮流行，特别是面对新的病毒毒株来袭的重要性是什么？您认为我们什么时候能看到疫苗接种的结果？
赵大海：当大多数高危人群已接种疫苗后，新冠疫情局部暴发和再次流行的风险，包括感染新冠新毒株的风险，就会大大降低。由于中国大陆大部分地区已没有新的确诊新冠病例，老百姓将不太容易感受到接种新冠疫苗后的效果。事实上，接种疫苗的最佳结果就是没有新的局部暴发或新冠的死灰复燃。此外，国家卫健委及其有关部门将会公布大规模疫苗接种效果的监测数据。当政府部门对新冠疫情防控措施相对放松时，公众就会注意到相应的结果。
主持人：中国已抗击新冠疫情近一年了。自春季以来，中国已在很大程度上控制了新冠病毒；但零星和散在的病例依然会出现。您是否有信心认为，中国已有充足的经验和能力不会让新冠疫情再次暴发？
赵大海：我有绝对的信心。具体而言，首先，中国已建立起了对新冠疑似病例的更为科学的监测、预警和应对机制和措施。基于该机制，只要新的疑似病例一旦出现，相关部门就能在最短时间内发现该疑似病例，并将所有密切接触者在极短时间内追溯到。这种新的监测预警机制确保了我国不会出现第二波新冠大流行。其次，我国目前对新冠疫情的防控措施更加精细化。在今年上半年的时候，如果出现了新的确诊病例，采取封城和对该市大部分人进行核酸检测是常用的方法；但目前，封闭和筛查的人群范围已大大缩小和精细化。譬如，就11月下旬发生在上海浦东的新冠疫情而言，浦东新区并没有封闭，也没有采用对所有市民进行核酸筛查的策略。
供稿者：上海交通大学
日期：2020年12月27日
Dahai ZHAO’s Exclusive Interview with CGTN: It is unlikely for China to see another outbreaks
Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at the School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by CGTN for the 48nd time (the 74nd time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On December 26, 2020, Zhao commented on the newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in Beijing which have raised questions about when the effects of China's COVID-19 vaccination will be felt and whether the country is capable of containing the pandemic on “China 24” of CGTN.
Anchor: We know China has begun vaccinated high-risk groups. How crucial is that in terms of containing a new round of infections here in China, particularly if we have that new virus strain in our side? And what kind of timeline are we looking at here in terms of getting results from the vaccinations?
ZHAO: When most high-risk population haven been vaccinated, the risk of local outbreak and resurgence of the pandemic of COVID-19, even the new strain of COVID-19 virus, will be dramatically decreased. Due to the fact that there have been no new confirmed cases in most majority areas of Chinese mainland, it is not easy for common citizens to notice the results of COVID-19 vaccinations. Actually, no new local outbreaks or resurgence of COVID-19 is the best result from vaccinations. In addition, the National Health Commission and its related departments will publish the monitoring data on efficacy of the mass vaccinating. When the prevention and control measures on the pandemic of COVID-19 is relatively loosen, the public will notice the results.
Anchor: As you well know, it's been about a year since China began its battle against COVID, and it has been able to largely control the virus since Spring with only sporadic cases which continue to emerge. Are you confident now that China has experience in containing large outbreaks that is unlikely for China to see large outbreaks?
ZHAO: Yes, I am absolutely confident. Specifically, First, China has much more scientific monitoring and early warning of, as well as response to, new suspected cases of COVID-19. Through this mechanism, the new suspected case is found at the very early stage, and all close contacts of the new case are also carefully traced in a very short period time. This new monitoring and early warning mechanism have ensured that there is no second-wave of pandemic of COVID-19 in China. Second, the current prevention and control measures on COVID-19 are more refined. In the first half of this year, if there was a new case of COVID-19, locking down the whole city, and screening for most people of the city is the common methods; however, at the current point, the population scope of lock-down and screening has been dramatically decreased and refined. For example, in terms of the outbreak in Shanghai Pudong in the late November, the Pudong district was not shut down, and the strategy on screening for all citizens was not used, either.
Contributor: SIPA, SJTU
Data: December 27, 2020