上海交大赵大海教授接受东方卫视专访:各国应高度警惕新冠Delta变异株

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院教授、博士生导师,上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海,自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,对于新冠疫情暴发、防控以及卫生政策第37次接受上海电视台专访,也是第95次接受央视、上视专访。2021年6月21日,赵大海在东方卫视的《今晚》节目,就新冠Delta变异株成为全球主要毒株及其相应的防控措施等话题进行了解释和评论。现将访谈内容摘录如下。

主持人:相关问题,马上来连线上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海。新冠肺炎疫情发生以来,多个国家都发现了变异毒株。为什么Delta变异株会在近期席卷多个国家,成为主要感染毒株?

赵大海:主要有三个原因:第一,Delta变异株的基础群体特别巨大。Delta变异毒株,最早是在印度发现的,在开始阶段每天是几万左右的新增病例。第二,最近一段时间以来,各国随着新冠疫苗的接种人数迅速增加,多个国家政府和公众普遍放松了对新冠疫情防控的警惕。第三,该变异株相比较于传统的新冠病毒,传播力更强,基本传染数大约是传统新冠病毒的两倍。在上述三个原因的共同作用下,Delta变异株使得多个国家采用传统防控新冠病毒的力度,显得效果不佳,进而很快使得该变异株成为多个国家的主要感染毒株。


主持人:本轮疫情中,广州、东莞、深圳的确诊患者感染的都是Delta变异株。从Delta变异株目前表现出来的传播力强,潜伏期短、病毒载量高、病情发展快等特点看,给我们的常态化防控提出怎样挑战?有必要针对性地升级本防控措施吗?

赵大海:在广东多个地区的近期疫情抗击经历来看,Delta变异株相比较于传统的新冠病毒,确实给当地的疫情防控带来了更大的挑战。最主要的表现在于:如果对于传统新冠病毒,广东各地区在过去一个月采取的措施,应当早就彻底防控住了疫情,不应该再有新发病例。因此,这就要求我们有必要在继续执行常态化防控策略的基础上,进一步对Delta变异株进行深入的研究。与此同时,除了广东之外,全国其他地区,执行常态化的“外防输入、内防反弹”的防控策略,面对Delta变异病毒株,依然效果是良好的。因此,目前来看,我们暂不需要全方面升级常态化的防控措施,主要是针对对于新冠疫苗对Delta变异株的抵抗能力进行科学评估。在此基础上,在一些细节方面对常态化防控策略进行补充和强化。

供稿:国务学院

日期:2021年6月22日


Dahai ZHAO’s Exclusive Interview with ShanghaiTV: World on heightened alert for Delta variant

Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at the School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by ShanghaiTV for the 37st time (the 95st time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On June 21 2021, Zhao commented on DELTA mutant strain has become the main virus strain in the world and its corresponding prevention and control measures on “Tonight” of Shanghai TV.

Anchor: Since the COVID-19 outbreak, mutated strains have been found in several countries. Why has the Delta variant recently become a major infection in several countries?

ZHAO: There are three main reasons. First, the base population of Delta variants is particularly large. The Delta variant, first discovered in India, was initially seeing tens of thousands of new cases a day. Second, with the rapid increase in the number of people vaccinated with COVID-19 in recent years, the governments and the public of many countries have generally relaxed their vigilance against COVID-19 prevention and control. Thirdly, compared with the traditional novel coronavirus, this mutant strain has stronger transmission power, and the basic infectious number is about twice that of the traditional novel coronavirus. Above all, the Delta mutant strain made many countries adopt the traditional novel coronavirus control efforts, which showed poor effect, and then quickly made the Delta mutant strain become the main infection strain in many countries.

Anchor: In the current outbreak, the Delta variant has infected people confirmed in Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen. What challenges do Delta variants pose to our normal prevention and control in terms of strong transmission, short incubation period, high viral load and rapid disease progression? Is it necessary to upgrade the prevention and control measures?

ZHAO: According to the recent experience of fighting against the epidemic in many regions of Guangdong, Delta mutant strain has indeed brought greater challenges to the local epidemic prevention and control compared with the traditional novel coronavirus. The main performance is that: for the traditional novel coronavirus, the measures taken by various regions in Guangdong in the past month should have thoroughly controlled the epidemic, and there should be no more new cases. Therefore, it is necessary for us to conduct further in-depth studies on Delta variants on the basis of continuing to implement normal prevention and control strategies. At the same time, in addition to Guangdong, the rest of the country, the implementation of the normal prevention and control strategy of "external prevention of import, internal prevention of rebound", in the face of Delta mutation virus strain, still has a good effect. Therefore, for the time being, we do not need to upgrade the normal prevention and control measures in all aspects, and we mainly focus on the scientific assessment of the resistance of the new coronavirus to Delta variant strains. On this basis, the normal prevention and control strategy is supplemented and strengthened in some details.

Contributor: SIPA, SJTU

Date: June 22, 2021


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