上海交大赵大海教授接受上海电视台专访:南京新冠疫情已趋于基本控制

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院教授、博士生导师,上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海,自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,对于新冠疫情暴发、防控以及卫生政策第39次接受上海电视台专访,也是第97次接受央视、上视专访。2021年7月28日,赵大海接受上海电视台新闻综合频道专访,在《新闻夜线》节目,就南京的新冠疫情防控进展、国际机场的疫情防控等话题进行了解释和评论。现将访谈内容摘录如下。

主持人:我们也关注到了这轮疫情现在在南京禄口机场。那么根据您的了解,您觉得南京的疫情现在发展到了一个什么样的阶段?会不会继续出现扩大的情况?

赵大海:鉴于南京市已出台了严格的疫情管控措施,特别是“非必要不外出,非必要不离宁”,且已经完成了两轮的全市核酸检测,随着下一轮全市核酸检测工作的推进,我相信南京本轮的疫情很快将趋于基本控制,而且不会发生进一步扩大这种可能性。


主持人:其实我们还很关注的是,这一次的国内德尔塔毒株的R0值是要低于国外的,这又是什么原因造成的?

赵大海:所谓的R0值,其实是在没有任何的外力介入、所有的人都没有免疫力,比如说没有进行新冠疫苗接种的情况下,一个感染新冠的人,他能传染给其他人的平均数。其实到目前为止,对于新冠病毒的R0值的测算,还没有一个统一的、确切的数字;对德尔塔毒株的R0值的测算也是这样。一般而言,我们对于传染病的R0值会测算出一个区间来,因此目前而言,国内测算的德尔塔毒株的R0值的数据比国外要低,应该讲算正常的。


主持人:刚才其实通过介绍,我们也知道,南京特别是禄口机场的防控压力确实很大,那么机场的疫情防控有哪些需要注意的地方?

赵大海:对于机场而言,本身就是人群流动极大的区域,需要进行最严格的疫情管控,而对于像南京禄口机场这种国际机场,更需要做好对于所有入境人员的严格的闭环的管理。另外,不仅对于所有的入境人员,还要对于所有与入境人员、货物有任何接触的人员,都要做到严格的闭环管理。唯有如此,我们才能做好机场特别是国际机场的疫情防控工作。

主持人:其实我们可以关注到,目前我们看到疫情已经蔓延到了九地了,那么这轮疫情的拐点,您觉得什么时候会出现?

赵大海:对于南京本市而言,我认为在本周末,最晚在下周初,应该就能迎来拐点。对于其他的溢出地区而言,就目前所发现的南京市以外的这些本土病例,都是直接与南京的新冠病例相关联,因此讲,其他溢出地区的新冠的散在暴发,还处于最早期的阶段,相关各地区也都已采取了严格的疫情管控措施,我相信其他溢出地区的疫情,应该很快会得到控制。

主持人:另外,我们也看到有些观点说现在关于密接的认定标准,或者说范围可能会扩大,这个您怎么看?

赵大海:在过去的一年半左右的时间之内,我们对于密接的概念相对还是比较固定,但是随着最近一段时间德尔塔病毒在全国不同区域的散在暴发,确实对于密切接触者的界定有了一定的改变,主要的原因是在于德尔塔病毒的传播速度,包括它传播的范围,相比较于原先的新冠病毒还是有一个比较大的提升,因此,我也认为,现在的密切接触者的界定的范围比原先的界定是应该要扩大的。

供稿:国务学院

日期:2021年7月29日


Dahai ZHAO’s Exclusive Interview with ShanghaiTV: Coronavirus outbreaks in Nanjing basically under control

Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at the School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by ShanghaiTV for the 39st time (the 97st time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On 28 July, 2021, Zhao commented on the progress of COVID-19 prevention and control in Nanjing and it’s international airport on “News Night-line” of Shanghai News Channel.

Anchor: This outbreak is now at Nanjing Lukou International Airport. According to your opinion, what the situation has been the epidemic in Nanjing? Will it continue to expand?

ZHAO: I believe that the current outbreak in Nanjing will soon be basically under control, and there will be no further expansion of this possibility as the next round of nucleic acid testing in the city is promoted. Given that Nanjing has introduced strict epidemic control measures, especially "do not go out unless it is necessary, and do not leave the city unless it is necessary", and has completed two rounds of nucleic acid testing in the city.

Anchor: In fact, this R0 value of domestic Delta strain is lower than that of foreign ones. Why?

ZHAO: R0 value is the average number of people infected with COVID-19 who can infect others in the absence of any external intervention and with no immunity, in the absence of COVID-19 vaccination, for example. Up to now, there is no exact number of R0 value of novel coronavirus. The same is true for the measurement of the R0 value of the Delta strain. Generally speaking, we calculate a range of R0 values for infectious diseases, so at present, the R0 value of delta strain measured in China is lower than that of foreign countries, which should be considered normal.

Anchor: Nanjing, especially Lukou Airport, is under great pressure to prevent and control the epidemic. What should we pay attention to in the airport's epidemic prevention and control?

ZHAO: There is a lot of turnover at the airport that require the most stringent outbreak control. For international airports such as Nanjing Lukou Airport, it is more necessary to do a good job of strict closed-loop management for all inbound personnel. 

In addition, strict closed-loop management should be implemented not only for all import personnel, but also for all personnel who have any contact with import personnel and cargo. Only in this way can we do a good job of epidemic prevention and control at airports, especially international airports.

Anchor: In fact, we can pay attention to the fact that the epidemic has spread to nine places so far. When do you think the turning point of this round of epidemic will appear?

ZHAO: For the city of Nanjing, I think by the end of this week, or the latest early at next week, it should be able to reach the turning point. For other spillover areas, the local cases outside Nanjing that have been detected so far are directly related to the cases in Nanjing. Therefore, sporadic outbreaks in other spillover areas are still in the earliest stages. All relevant areas have taken strict measures and I believe it will be brought under control soon.

Anchor: In addition, some people say that the standard or scope of the close contact may be expanded. What's your opinion on that?

ZHAO: Over the last year and a half or so, our concept of close contact has been fixed. However, with recent sporadic outbreaks of Delta virus in different parts of the country, the definition of close contacts has indeed changed. The main reason is that the transmission rate of the Delta virus, including the extent of its spread, has improved significantly compared with the original novel coronavirus. Therefore, I also believe that the current definition of close contacts should be more extensive than the original definition.

Contributor: SIPA, SJTU

Date: July 29, 2021


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