上海交大赵大海接受央视专访：“新冠清零”策略是科学和必要的
上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院教授、博士生导师，上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来，对于新冠疫情暴发、防控以及卫生政策第64次接受中央电视台专访，也是第108次接受央视、上视专访。2021年11月3日，赵大海接受中央电视台英语频道专访，在《今日亚洲》节目，就钟南山院士对新冠疫情全球大流行的研判和对中国“新冠清零”策略进行了解释与评论。现将访谈内容翻译并摘录如下。
主持人：在本周二，中国大陆确诊了93例新的本土新冠病例，这是自最近10月17日暴发本波疫情以来，国内每日确诊的最高病例数。尽管采取了严格的措施，为什么会出现这样的疫情？
赵大海：我认为至少有两个原因。首先，Delta变异毒株的传播速度非常快。其次，本波疫情是通过旅游团传播的，而旅游团确实非常容易将病毒从一个地区传播到多个不同的地方。
主持人：中国顶尖呼吸病学家钟南山院士表示，到明年年底，跨国旅行可能会更加自由。他为什么做出评估？您对此有何评论？
赵大海：我认为他做出该评估主要是基于了世界各地新冠疫苗接种的进度。世界上大多数人将在明年年底前完成疫苗接种。当然，就该评估而言，我们肯定希望能实现。事实上，跨国旅行的时间表或实现时间依然还无法完全确定。明年年底跨国旅行的目标实现取决于世界各国的共同努力。如果新冠病毒大流行能在明年年底之前完全控制，人们当然可以自由跨国旅行；然而，我们也不得不做好无法实现该目标的准备。
主持人：随着更多国家开放边境和放松限制，中国正在捍卫“新冠清零”策略。钟南山在早些时候还表示，这项策略是必要的。但这会持续多久？“新冠清零”策略的长期影响是什么？
赵大海：许多国家放松管控限制的策略出现了不少问题，特别是这些国家均出现了疫情反弹。因此，我们必须坚持“新冠清零”策略。我们认为“新冠清零”策略是应对新冠大流行的唯一科学策略。外防输入的策略将持续到新冠病毒被成功击败为止。尽管我们肯定要为“新冠清零”策略付出较高的代价，但与大多数国家无法控制的新冠疫情长时期大暴发相比，我们相信新冠清零策略是最好的策略，对我们国家的经济、社会和人民都更为有利。
供稿者：国务学院
日期：2021年11月4日
Dahai ZHAO’s Exclusive Interview with CGTN: China’s zero-COVID strategy takes scientific and necessary infection prevention and control
Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at the School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by CGYN for the 64st time (the 108st time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On November 3, Zhao commented on Academician Zhong Nanshan's opinions on the coronavirus pandemic in the world and China’s zero-Covid strategy on CGTN “Asia Today”.
Anchor: The Chinese mainland recorded 93 new local infections on Tuesday. It's the highest daily number of domestic cases since this recent outbreak began on October 17th. Despite strict measures, why such outbreak?
ZHAO: I think there are at least two reasons. First, the Delta variant of the virus is characteristics of so rapid transmissions. Second, the latest local outbreaks are through the tour group which is much more convenient to be transmitted from one area to many different places.
Anchor: China's top epidemiologist, Zhong Nanshan, says international travel could be more freely by the end of next year. Why did he make the assessment and what's your comment on it?
ZHAO: I think what he made the assessment mostly depend on the vaccinations all over the world. Most people in the world will be vaccinated by the end of next year. In terms of the assessment, of course, we really hope so. Actually, the timeline or deadline of the international travel is not very clear yet. The goal of international travel by the end of next year depends on the endeavor of all countries in the world. If the pandemic of COVID-19 can be controlled completely in the end of next year, of course, people can go abroad freely; however, we have to prepare for the negative outcome.
Anchor: China is defending its zero-COVID approach - as more countries open borders and loosen restrictions. Earlier Zhong also said the policy is necessary. But how long this will last? What's the end game here and what's the long term impact of the zero-COVID policy?
ZHAO: The fact that many countries loosen restrictions has produced a couple of problems. Particularly, the rebounds of the pandemic in these countries have been shown. Therefore, we have to last the zero-COVID approach. We also believe the zero-covid approach is the only scientific strategy to cope with the pandemic. The strategy on preventing the virus imported from abroad will be lasted until the virus is successfully defeated. Although we have to pay a high price for the zero-COVID approach, compared with the uncontrolled outbreaks in most countries, we believe the zero-COVID approach is the best strategy, and is much better for our economy, society and people.
Contributor: SIPA, SJTU
Date: November 4, 2021