上海交大赵大海接受央视专访:西安封控和全民核酸检测是完全有必要的

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院教授、博士生导师,上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海,自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,对于新冠疫情暴发、防控以及卫生政策第67次接受中央电视台专访,也是第116次接受央视、上视专访。2021年12月28日,赵大海在中央电视台英语频道的《中国24小时》节目,就西安市新冠疫情防控措施以及全国新冠疫情防控策略的话题进行了解释和评论。现将访谈内容翻译并摘录如下。

主持人:一部分人批评西安全市的封控和严格的疫情控制措施。您认为这些措施确实有必要吗?

赵大海:我相信西安的严格控制措施是非常必要的。以下是两个原因:首先,正是由于西安市的封控,目前中国大陆绝大多数的每日新确诊病例都只局限于西安市。否则,如果西安市不采取封控措施,我们就很容易能推断出,在很短的时间内新冠疫情将在全国暴发。其次,正是由于西安在全市范围内不断进行多轮全民核酸检测,每日大部分的新增确诊病例都在感染的早期被发现了。如果西安不采取全市多轮全民核酸检测的措施,仅仅依靠传统的流行病学追踪,即便采取了封控措施,西安必将在短时间出现大暴发。因此,与很多国家的“与病毒共存”策略相比,我相信西安市目前的严格疫情防控措施是科学的、具有更高的成本效益、真正体现了以人为本,也是控制疫情的最佳方式。这也是中国能够控制疫情,而大多数国家无法防控住的主要原因。


主持人:随着北京冬季奥运会的临近,中国还应做些什么措施来防范出现全国的新冠疫情反弹?

赵大海:首先,对于大城市和边境地区而言,鉴于通过入境人员或货物导致的潜在疫情局部暴发的可能性比较大,要严格执行防范境外输入的策略。各大城市和边境地区不能放松警惕,要继续严格执行防范境外输入关联本土新增新冠病例风险的各项既定政策。毕竟,与其他地区相比,大城市和边境地区直接接触到入境人员和货物的概率要高得多。其次,全国各地方政府将继续实施动态清零策略,努力进一步完善新冠疫情早期监测和快速反应机制。考虑到春节和冬季奥运会的临近,而全球新冠依然处于大流行,中国各地政府没有任何理由放松警惕,必须继续严格执行“外防输入、内防反弹”的疫情防控策略。

供稿者:国务学院

日期:2021年12月30日


Dahai ZHAO’s Exclusive Interview with CGTN: Lockdown measures and citywide nucleic acid testing adopt in Xi’an were absolutely necessary

Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at the School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by CGYN for the 67st time (the 116st time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On December 28, Zhao commented on COVID prevention and control measures in Xi‘an city and prevention and control strategies nationwide on CGTN “China 24”.

Moderate: Professor Zhao, there has been criticism about the city-wide lockdown and the strict epidemic control measures in Xi'an. How necessary are these measures?

ZHAO: I do believe the strict control measures in Xian are really necessary. Two reasons are as followed. First, just because of the lockdown of the city, the most majority of current new confirmed cases in the whole Chinese mainland are limited in Xi’an. Or else, it is very easy to deduce that a large number of new confirmed cases would have been found in a couple of cities in the whole China in a very short period of time. Second, only because of the continuous city-wide nucleic acid testing, more and more new confirmed cases have been found at very early stage of the pandemic. If the city did not conduct the city-wide nucleic acid testing, and only depended on the traditional epidemiologic tracing, tremendous new confirmed cases would have been found in the city. Therefore, compared with the strategy of coexist with the virus in other countries, I do believe the current strict measures in Xian are scientific, cost-effective, people-centered, and the best way to control the pandemic. It is also the reason why China can control the pandemic and most countries can not.

Moderate: China has one of the most, if not, the most rigorous COVID-19 control and prevention protocols, which is why it can control outbreaks. With the Olympics coming up, what else can be done in China to prevent another flareup...or even another pandemic?

ZHAO: First, in terms of the big cities and border areas, strictly preventing the virus from outside of China through imported people or goods is still the most important strategy to prevent the pandemic. All big cities or border areas must not relax the guard, and continue to strictly implement the related policy of preventing the imported virus. After all, it has much higher probability for big cities and border areas than other areas of contacting directly with the people or goods from overseas. Second, all local governments in the whole country will continue to insist the zero clearing strategy, and try to further build the early monitoring and rapid response mechanism for the potential outbreak of COVID-19. Considering both the Chinese Spring Festival holiday and the Olympics are approaching, and the pandemic in the world is still very serious, there are really no reasons for all local governments in China to relax the guard, and they must continue to strictly implement the strategy of curbing imported COVID-19 cases and domestic resurgences.

Contributor: SIPA, SJTU

Date: December 30, 2021


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