上海交大赵大海接受央视专访：天津的疫情防控策略是科学的
上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院教授、博士生导师，上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来，对于新冠疫情暴发、防控以及卫生政策第68次接受中央电视台专访，也是第117次接受央视、上视专访。2022年1月13日，赵大海在中央电视台英语频道的《中国24小时》节目，就天津市新冠疫情防控的相关话题进行了解释和评论。现将访谈内容翻译并摘录如下。
主持人：天津的每日新增新冠病例数量正在上升，请问该城市如何应对？
赵大海：考虑到天津市的新冠疫情尚未得到控制，该市必须全力以赴来应对疫情。首先，当地政府应努力保证封闭区域，特别是津南区的相关区域，全面落实疫情管控措施。公众也应该遵守所有的相关疫情管控规定。例如，居住在封闭区域的居民除非获得许可，否则不能外出。此外，当地政府也应当确保封闭区域居民的基本生活需求。其次，对于天津市的低风险区域，地方政府、社会组织和公众应共同全面落实各项疫情防控措施。例如，当居民外出时，必须戴口罩，不要参加聚会等。此外，全面接种疫苗，特别是第三针加强针疫苗，以及进行另一轮大规模的核酸检测等措施，也是非常有必要的。
主持人：天津正在进行另一轮大规模核酸检测。当地卫生官员说这很重要，因为上个月在全市范围内进行的筛查发现了无法正确追踪的病例。您认为当地卫生官员的担心是应该的吗？
赵大海：我的回答是肯定的。由于新冠病毒，尤其是奥米克戎新毒株，传播速度特别快，一例被遗漏的新冠病例可能会在很短的时间内导致大量的传染病例，甚至导致大暴发。因此，我相信当他们无法追踪到感染者时，他们确实会非常担心。如果在短时间内可以追踪到所有确诊病例的所有密切接触者，那么当然是没有必要开展大规模核酸检测的。然而，天津市目前的局部新冠疫情已有社区传播的趋势，即通过传统的流行病学调查方法很难找到所有确诊病例的传播链和所有的密切接触者。因此，大规模核酸检测是非常必要的。考虑到一轮大规模核酸检测的准确度不是很高，而且天津存在社区传播，我认为开展第二轮大规模核酸检测是有必要的。全市全民核酸检测已在许多城市得到验证，是应对新冠暴发的最佳方式，也是最具成本效益的方式。
供稿者：国务学院
日期：2022年1月14日
Dahai ZHAO’s Exclusive Interview with CGTN: Tianjin taking scientific prevention and control after omicron found
Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at the School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by CGYN for the 68st time (the 117st time by CGTN / ShanghaiTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. On January 13, Zhao commented on COVID prevention and control measures in Tianjin city and prevention and control strategies nationwide on CGTN “China 24”.
Moderate: Tianjin is now seeing a rise in the current of coronavirus cases. How do you think the city is coping?
ZHAO: Considering the pandemic has not been under control, the city has to go all out to cope with a pandemic. First, the local government tries to confirm the full implementation of the lockdown regulations in the lockdown areas, particularly in the Jinnan district, the citizens also should comply with the regulations. For example, people who live in the lockdown areas cannot go outside except for permission. In addition, the local government tries to ensure the basic living demands of the citizens. Second, the local government, social organizations, and citizens in the low-risk areas in Tianjin should confirm the full implementation of the traditional preventing measures. For example, when people go outside, they must wear face masks and not attend gatherings. In addition, all people in Tianjin try to be fully vaccinated including the 3rd dose of vaccine. Another round of mass testing is also needed.
Moderate: Now, as you said, another round of mass testing, and Tianjin officials are carrying out that. In fact, health officials said a city-wide screening last month found cases that couldn't be properly tracked.
ZHAO: My answer is yes. Due to the fact that the spread speed of the COVID-19 virus is so fast, one missing confirmed case may lead to a large number of infected cases even a larger outbreak in a very short period of time. Therefore, I believe when they cannot treat infections, they will be extremely worried, even desperate If it's very clear to trace all close contacts of all confirmed cases in a short period of time, it's not necessary to conduct mass testing. The current local outbreak in Tianjin has a trend of community spread that it is not easy to find the spread rooting of all conformity through the traditional epidemiological method. Therefore mass testing is really necessary. Considering the accuracy of one round of mass testing is not very high, and the community spread in Tianjin is clear, I believe the second round of mass testing is necessary. As far as I know, multi-mass testing, which has been fully confirmed in a lot of cities in China, is the best way and the most effective way to cope with the pandemic.
Contributor: SIPA, SJTU
Date: January 14, 2021