快评丨疫情防控及时切换到“外防输入、内防反弹”，全力恢复经济发展
赵大海, 严晶晶
上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心
当前，我国疫情防控形势持续向好。党中央和各级政府在应对重大突发公共卫生疫情当中，充分发挥出了责任政府的决断力、凝聚力、行动力。具体体现在党中央始终以人民生命安全为首要担当、指挥全国齐力下好一盘棋；各级政府用好防控指挥部和联动防控机制的枢纽、处理疫情抗击中的程序性问题和结构性难题；全国医疗卫生系统坚守大医精诚精神、遵循科学依据迎艰破难，在疫情大考面前获得佳绩，迎来了防控的大好局面。
虽然世界各国新冠肺炎疫情日趋严峻，新冠肺炎世界大流行的趋势在短时间内难以扭转。然而随着我国入境人员减少，这必然大幅降低了我国各大城市对入境人员疫情传播的防控压力，也使得各城市有精力和能力全方位、闭环式对入境人员进行疫情防控管理，确保中国不会发生第二次疫情爆发。我们要“把重点放在外防输入、内防反弹上来，保持我国疫情防控形势持续向好态势”。从“内防扩散、外防输出”及时切换到“外防输入、内防反弹”。
在坚持防控不放松的前提之下，中国将复工复产、恢复经济社会秩序运行必然将是头等大事，具体如下：第一，疫情防控重点的转移到入境人员管理，尽快放开除武汉之外的全国其它地区疫情管制。截止到3月28日，全球新增境外病例以单日6万数陡增，国内已累计输入649例。针对国际疫情形势焦灼，我国疫情防控的重点应转移到入境人员管理和境外输入病例防控中。具体来看，应对任何方式的入境人员采取严格的疫情防控处置程序。随着我国单日入境人员数量减少，使得入境疫情精准防控管理具备了可行性。如深圳自3月27日6时起，对所有经深圳口岸入境人员（含港澳台地区，含中转旅客）实行核酸检测全覆盖，并实施集中隔离医学观察14天；上海自3月28日零时起，对所有入境来沪人员一律实施为期14天的集中隔离健康观察，取消原来的对入境人员黄、绿标区分。而对于武汉之外的全国其他地区，则应在保证防控的基础上尽快有序放开交通管制、提供措施便利企业复工复产、提供金融支持促进企业复工复产。对企业复工复产情况进行追踪调研，以属地管理的原则建立专项帮扶渠道和协同帮扶机制，对受到影响的单位给予互通调济和必要引导，通过定向减征、定向补贴，让真金白银流向经济发展的紧要环节、流进受到疫情影响的企业和失业人员手中。通过促进多渠道就业、推进创业带动就业、做好困难人员兜底保障，多措并举帮助企业和失业人员共同应对疫情冲击。
第二，鼓励部分企业短期转型生产世界各国所需的医疗防护等物资，但要注意预防扎堆式盲目转型扩张。当前受国际疫情高态势影响，一些国家和地区正面临着医疗防护物资的日益急剧短缺。如美国医院协会是美国最大的医院行业性组织，代表着美国5000多家医院和卫生系统，3月23日美国医院协会副主席南希·福斯特表示，全美范围内几乎都面临着物资短缺的问题，缺乏多种防护设备；纽约市市长白思豪更警告道，如果不能缓解物资短缺的问题，将无法挽救原本有希望生存下来的生命。针对国际医疗防护物资的紧缺和其他生产制造业相对冰封的时刻，一些企业已经在政府号召下加入了生产医疗防护物资的行列。现在，可以鼓励部分企业短期转型生产世界各国所需的医疗防护等物资和防护物资流通行业，一方面医疗防护措施是保卫疫情中的医护人员的最低防线，能不能打好全球疫情抗击的阻击战，甚至一段时期的持久战，保护好全球医护人员，必备的医疗防护物资可以说起到至关成败的重要作用；另一方面，考虑到当前技术下，受污染之后的医疗防护物资无法循环使用的属性，医疗防护物资短期在全球范围内缺口极大。企业通过医疗防护物资的生产，事实上加快了产量、实现了满负荷的复工复产、释放了企业产能，从而有可能带动和促进其他物资的消费和生产运转，因此，生产医疗防护物资可作为促进经济回暖提高企业生产积极性的一种选择。同时，各地政府应做好未雨绸缪，从长远来看，单一的生产模式和扎堆式的经济驱动不利于企业自身可持续发展和经济整体健康回暖，对此，各地政府应及时做好相关的调研和引导工作，谨防生产业盲目蜂拥，对当地经济健康均衡造成不利影响。
第三，实施维持业务运转的替代计划。面对疫情事件在全球蔓延和影响已不可逆转，以及疫情背后全球产业链、流通和消费终端的深刻变化，复工复产企业应根据自身情况和行业特点做好替代和调整规划。一方面企业应及时使用好国家和金融部门的扶持和融资政策，及时把握未来经济形势中的导向和信息；另一方面应调整运营模式和开发创新渠道，从规模复制走向精致生产，争取在下一轮市场竞争中获得优先和优势。鼓励企业主动拓宽诱发消费需求，打磨自身生产质量，提升在贸易竞争中的区分度、关注度和受信任度。
第四，做好防范金融危机的预备性工作。由于受到国际疫情和宏观经济的影响，投资者忧虑疫情冲击影响到脆弱的环球经济增长和企业的盈利前景，引致各行各业出现持续性现金流不足，引发系统性的连锁反应，全球金融市场经历骤然巨幅震荡。不同于2008年金融危机，如今，美国式的借贷支持和救市计划，包括一级市场公司信贷融资、二级市场信贷安排和定期资产支持证券贷款工具等非常政策显得更为被动，方案成效也有待观察。但经济停摆和金融震荡的影响在全社会内并非平均分配，因此，我国对于金融行业要加强监管，防范由此引发的金融危机和一连串的社会影响。
（编辑：李靖云）
原载于「21世纪经济报道」2020-03-31 07:00
Quick Comment｜Full Efforts on Economic Recovery and Development, COVID-19 Containment Alternating to External Importation and Internal Rebounding
Dahai ZHAO, Jingjing YAN
SJTU-Yale Joint Center for Health Policy
Currently, China's epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve. The Party Central Committee and governments at multi-levels have fully exerted the determination, cohesion, and action of the accountable government in response to major public health emergencies. This is reflected in the fact that the Party Central Committee always takes the safety of the people ’s lives as the primary responsibility and directs the whole country to act as a whole; governments at multi-levels make good use of the prevention and control headquarters and the hub of the joint prevention and control mechanism, and deal with the procedural issues and structural aspects of the epidemic; the national medical and health system adheres to the Absolute Sincerity of Great Physicians and adheres to the scientific basis to face difficulties and difficulties, and has achieved good results in the face of the epidemic exam, ushering in a great situation of COVID-19 containment.
Although the epidemic situation of COVID-19 pandemic in countries all over the world is getting more and more severe, the trend of the outbreak in the world is difficult to reverse in a short time. However, with the decrease in the number of inbound personnel in China, this will inevitably reduce the pressure on the prevention and control of the outbreak of inbound personnel in major cities in China, and will also enable cities to have the energy and ability to carry out outbreak prevention and control management of inbound personnel in a comprehensive and closed-loop manner to ensure that there will be no second outbreak in China. We must focus on external defense of imported cases and internal defense of relapse cases, and keep the situation of our country's epidemic prevention and control continued to improve." Alternate from "internal anti-spread, external anti-export” to "external anti-import, internal anti-rebound" in time.
Under the premise of not loosing prevention and control, China will inevitably resume production and restore economic and social order. The details are as follows: First, the focus of epidemic prevention and control will be transferred to the management of inbound personnel, and Wuhan will be return to normalcy as soon as possible. The epidemic situation is under control in other regions of the country. As of March 28, the number of new overseas cases increased by 60,000 in a single day, and 649 cases have been imported in China. As international containing COVID-19 suggests reasons for pessimism, the focus of our country's epidemic prevention and control should be shifted to the management of entry personnel and the prevention and control of imported cases abroad. Specifically, strict procedures for the prevention and control of epidemic situations should be adopted for immigrants in any way. With the decrease in the number of single-day entry personnel in China, the precise prevention and control of entry epidemic situations has become feasible. For example, Shenzhen has implemented full coverage of nucleic acid testing for all inbound personnel (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions, including transit passengers) from Shenzhen port from 6:00 on March 27, and implemented centralized isolation medical observation for 14 days; starting at midnight on March 28, Shanghai has implemented a 14-day quarantine for all people who enter the city, cancelling the original distinction of yellow and green standard for entry personnel according to their health code. For the rest of the country except Wuhan, we should, on the basis of prevention and control, release traffic control in an orderly manner as soon as possible, provide measures to facilitate enterprises' resumption of work and production, and provide financial support to promote producing. Follow-up investigation of the resumption of production and production of enterprises, the establishment of special assistance channels and collaborative assistance mechanisms based on the principle of territorial management, giving mutual adjustment and necessary guidance to the affected units, through targeted reduction of taxes and targeted subsidies, real money flows to the vital links of economic development and into the hands of enterprises and unemployed people affected by the epidemic. By promoting multi-channel employment, advancing entrepreneurship to promote employment, and ensuring the protection of people in difficulty, we should take multiple measures to help enterprises and unemployed people cope with the impact of the epidemic.
Second, some companies are encouraged to make short-term transitions to produce medical protection and other materials needed by countries around the world, but we must pay attention to preventing blind transformation and expansion. Affected by the current high international epidemic situation, some countries and regions are facing an increasingly acute shortage of medical protective materials. For example, the American Hospital Association is the largest hospital industry organization in the United States and represents more than 5,000 hospitals and health systems in the United States. On March 23, Nancy Foster, the vice president of the American Hospital Association, said that almost all the nations are facing shortages The problem is lack of multiple protective equipment; New York City Mayor Blasio even warned that if the shortage of materials could not be alleviated, it would not be able to save the life that had hoped to survive. In response to the shortage of international medical protective materials and the moment when other manufacturing industries are relatively frozen, some enterprises have joined the ranks of producing medical protective materials under the government's call. Now, it is possible to encourage some enterprises to make short-term transformation to produce medical protection equipments and other materials and protective materials circulation industries needed. On the one hand, medical protection equipments are the minimum line of defense for medical personnel in the epidemic, can they fight the global anti-epidemic resistance, even a period of protracted battle, to protect global medical personnel, the necessary pensonnel protective equipments can be said to play an important role in the success or failure; On the other hand, considering the current technology, the property of contaminated medical protective materials that cannot be recycled, the short-term medical protective materials have a huge gap globally. Through the production of medical protective equipments, enterprises actually achieve full-load resumption of production, and release the company's production capacity, which may drive and promote the consumption and production operation of other materials. Therefore, the production of medical protective equipments can be used as a choice to promote economic recovery and increase the enthusiasm of enterprises of production. At the same time, local governments should take precautions. In the long run, a single production model and a bunch of economic drivers are not conducive to the company's own sustainable development and the overall health of the economy. In this regard, local governments should promptly do related research and guide the work and beware of the blind swarming of the production industry, which will adversely affect the local economic balance.
Third, implement alternative plans to maintain business operations. Faced with the irreversible global spread and impact of the epidemic, and the profound changes in the global industrial chain, circulation, and consumer terminals behind the epidemic, enterprises that resume work should resume and adjust their plans based on their own circumstances and industry characteristics. On the one hand, enterprises should make good use of the support and financing policies of the country and the financial sector in a timely manner, and timely grasp the guidance and information in the future economic situation; gain priority and advantage in round market competition. Encourage enterprises to take the initiative to broaden the induced consumer demand, polish their own production quality, and enhance the degree of differentiation, attention and trust in trade competition.
Fourth, make good preparations to prevent financial crises. Due to the impact of the international epidemic and the macro economy, investors are concerned that the impact of the epidemic will affect the fragile global economic growth and corporate profit prospects, resulting in continuous cash flow shortages in all walks of life, triggering a systematic chain reaction, and global financial market experience Suddenly a huge shock. Unlike the financial crisis of 2008, today, American-style lending support and bailout plans, including primary market company credit financing, secondary market credit arrangements, and fixed asset-backed securities loan instruments, are very passive, and the effectiveness of the plan remains to be seen observed. However, the impact of economic shutdowns and financial shocks is not evenly distributed in the whole society. Therefore, China must strengthen supervision of the financial industry to prevent the resulting financial crisis and a series of social impacts.
(Editor: Jingyun Li)
Originally published in “21st Century Business”, 2020-03-31 07:00