上海交大赵大海关于新冠疫情第27次在电视台直播评论：美国重启经济将对疫情产生巨大影响
上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院博士生导师、上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，对于冠肺炎疫情暴发与防控第10次做客上海电视台进行直播评论，也是第27次在央视/上视进行直播评论。2020年5月5日，赵大海做客东方卫视演播室，在21点20分的《今晚》节目，对美国重启经济对新冠疫情的影响等进行了解读和评论。现将主要内容摘录如下。
主持人：相关话题，我们在上海演播室请到了上海交通大学-耶鲁大学卫生政策联合研究中心执行主任赵大海，赵主任好，我们先来看这份文件，白宫的发言人回应说，《纽约时报》取得的这个文件其实不是白宫的文件，他说相关的数据是不能够反映工作组建立的任何模型，也就是说他其实明确否认了文件的一个权威性，那您怎么来理解当中提到这个预测数据？
赵大海：文件里边的预测数据主要是两个，一个是到6月1日，每日的死亡人数是3000人；另外一个数据，是6月1日的时候，每日新增确诊病例数是20万。其实对于死亡人数，刚才我们小片里没有过多地展开，我就不再详细提及。对于到6月1日，每日新增病例数在20万这个数据，应该是在美国20多个州已经重启经济的前提下的一个预测数据，我们通过它的模型以及它获取的原始数据来看，这个报告的权威性应该还是不错的，它的整个数据的分析还是比较合理。应该讲这个报告可以给美国联邦政府一个比较好的参考，也就是说在复工的前提下，联邦政府应该心里有底了，就是差不多到6月1日左右，每日新增的病例数是20万。
主持人：所以我注意到您用的关键词是有一定的参考性，那我们说在预测这个疫情的发展的时候，其实同时我们要关注就是重启经济的问题，刚才您也多次提到了这个重启经济，现在我们看到这个失业的人口已经是超出了3000万，美国也正在加速复工当中，所以接下来的这段时间，您怎么来判断复工对疫情的影响？
赵大海：复工对于美国疫情的影响，应该是比较容易判断。就是说，首先美国现在不具备复工的条件，因为美国现在每天的新增病例数还在2到3万左右。相当于，美国差不多三天左右时间的新增病例数就是我们中国所有的病例数。在这样一个非常大的基数的前提下来强推复工，而且已经有20多个州复工的话，那这个结局也就是说可能真的能达到刚才我们提到的这份文件的预测数据，到五月底六月初的时候，到20万这么多。但有一个前提，美国现在的核酸检测能力还达不到能每天检测出20万的病例，因为美国前期的核酸检测阳性率在20%左右。也就是说，如果想检测出20万患者来，需要每天检测100万人，这个美国是做不到的。美国现在一般一天能检测15万人左右。也就是说，如果假定完全可以能够做到检测的话应该在20万。当然这个数据也进一步的反映了在复工的前提下，美国疫情的严重性和严峻性。
供稿者：国务学院
日期：2020年5月6日
Dahai Zhao' 27th comments on TV during the Pandemic: Restarting the U.S. Economy Could Have a Huge Impact on the Coronavirus Spread
Dahai Zhao, a doctoral supervisor at School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Yale University Joint Research Center for Health Policy, has been interviewed by DFTV for the 10th time (the 27th time by CGTV / DFTV) since the COVID-19 pandemic. At 21:20 on May 5, 2020, Zhao commented on the impact of the U.S. economic reopening on “Tonight”.
Anchor: A spokesman of White House responded that the document obtained by the New York times was not a White House document. He said that the relevant data could not reflect any model established by the working group, which means that he explicitly denied an authority of the document. How do you understand the forecast data mentioned in the document?
Zhao: The main projections in the document are two, one for June 1st, with a daily death toll of 3,000. Another statistic is that on June 1, the number of new confirmed cases per day was 200,000. I'm not going to go into the details of the death toll. The number of new cases per day by June 1st was around 200,000, which should be a forecast given that more than 20 American states have restarted their economies. Judging from its model and the raw data it acquired, the authority of this report should be good, and its overall data analysis is reasonable. The report is a good reference for the federal government. Under the premise of returning to work, the number of new cases per day around 1 June was 200,000.
Anchor: So I noticed that the key word you used was, "reference". At the same time, we need to focus on the issue of restarting the economy, which you have mentioned many times. The number of unemployed has exceeded 30 million. The United States is speeding up the resumption of work. How do you assess the impact of the resumption of work on the outbreak in the following period?
Zhao: Firstly, the United States is not ready to return to work, because the number of new cases in the United States is still around 20 to 30 thousand a day. The number of new cases in the United States in the last three days or so is the total number of cases we have in China. With such a large base, and with more than 20 states already back on the work, the consequence may actually meet the document's forecast of 200,000 by the end of May and early June. But that's on the premise that the current nucleic acid detection capacity in the United States is not enough to detect 200,000 cases a day. The positive rate of nucleic acid testing in the United States is about 20%. In other words, if you want to detect 200,000 patients, you need to detect a million people a day, which is something that the United States cannot achieve now. The United States now typically tests about 150,000 people a day. If it can be completely tested, it should be 200,000. It further reflects the urgency and seriousness of the outbreak in the United States.
Contributor: SIPA, SJTU
Data: May, 6